Playoff rotation

Typically, a team has a fairly set rotation heading into the last 6 weeks of the season. However, circumstances can intervene to prevent such a rotation from being established, and that certainly is the case with the Mavericks this year. As such, I thought it would be interesting to kick around the idea of a playoff rotation. Assuming a healthy roster, who should be included in the rotation? How should the minutes be distributed? Here's my two cents...

Starters:

Dampier - 35 mpg
Nowitzki - 40 mpg
Howard - 25-35 mpg
Finley - 25-35 mpg
Terry - 36 mpg

Bench:

Harris - 12 mpg
Stackhouse 13-23 mpg
Daniels 13-23 mpg
Henderson/Bradley/Van Horn - 21 mpg


I think it's pretty much a given that Dirk Nowitzki will be on the floor most of the time, and he should be. Dampier and Terry also fall into the category of guys who should be on the floor as long as possible, but I think they both need a bit more rest than Nowitzki to be as productive as possible (and in Dampier's case, he needs to be able to play aggressively on defense, which means he'll have some foul situations that will keep his minutes down from time to time). The backups behind Dampier and Terry are, at least at this point, a pretty significant downgrade. Thus, I think we should use the bench players at those positions sparingly once the playoffs roll around. That's not the case, however, with the swing positions.

When it comes to the 2 and 3 spot, I honestly think we should start Finley and Howard and then let the chips fall where they may. There will be nights where Daniels and Stackhouse really have it going, and they may be playing late in the game while Fin and Josh are watching. On other nights, the converse may be true. On some other nights, it may be a different combination (e.g., Howard and Stackhouse) that winds up the game. The Mavs have too much talent at the swing positions to force-feed minutes to a guy that isn't going well. One thing I don't want to see, however, is Nellie trying to find minutes for his swing guys by putting them into positions where they don't fit (e.g., Daniels at PG or Howard at PF). I think it's crucial that the Mavs maintain balance on the floor in the playoffs, and that involves always having a "dirty work" big guy next to Dirk (Dampier/Henderson/Bradley) and a real PG on the floor who can create AND defend the position. There are too many good PGs in the West (Parker, Nash, Bibby, for instance) who will absolutely torch our wing players for us to be screwing around with "mismatch" lineups out there.

As far as the frontline backups go, I think that we should play some combination of Bradley/Henderson/KVH, depending upon the opponent. Against a team like the Rockets, I think Bradley would probably see more time. Against a team like the Suns or Sonics, we'll probably need more from KVH and Henderson. Against the Spurs, well, I suppose we can figure that out when we get there...

Scoring efficiency

One thing that really bothers me is inefficient offensive players getting more shots than they should. Using the modified points-per-possession formula discussed in prior blog entries, here is how the Mavs stack up, top to bottom, in terms of scoring efficiency vs. shot attempts:

Terry 1.33 PPP, 8.8 FGA/game
Nowitzki 1.26 PPP, 19.5 FGA/game
Finley 1.21 PPP, 15.6 FGA/game
Van Horn 1.15 PPP, 9.8 FGA/game
Howard 1.14 PPP, 10.6 FGA/game
Dampier 1.13 PPP, 6.5 FGA/game
Stackhouse 1.13 PPP, 12.5 FGA/game
Harris 1.13 PPP, 5.0 FGA/game
Henderson 1.10 PPP, 2.9 FGA/game
Daniels 1.06 PPP, 9.8 FGA/game
Bradley 1.04 PPP, 2.0 FGA/game
Armstrong 1.00 PPP, 2.9 FGA/game
Ilunga-Mbenga 0.89 PPP, 0.9 FGA/game

What do those numbers tell us? Well, Terry's not shooting nearly enough, Stackhouse and Daniels are shooting too much, and Finley might need to trim his shot attempts back as well. What is clear is that Terry, Nowitzki, and Finley are clearly the three most efficient offensive options, and they should be taking the majority of the shots. One other thing that's clear: Marquis Daniels is by FAR the least efficient scorer among the regular rotation guys. Regardless of where he takes his shots.

I'd settle for Terry being No. 3 on the team in shot attempts, because he also has to try and set up his teammates. As it stands, he is No. 7 in FGA/game. That should not continue to be the case, if the Mavs want to be successful in the playoffs.