There are a million different ways to analyze how an NBA team is performing and whether that team is a "legitimate title contender." However, my favorite gauge is the formula devised by Ron over at LMF. As I understand his reasoning, virtually all NBA champions are ranked in the Top 10 in at least 2 of 3 vital categories: points per game, defensive FG%, and rebounding differential. The formula allows you to gauge the team's offensive, defensive, and rebounding performance relative to other teams and determine where it stands at any given time.
As of this morning, the Mavericks stand 6th in scoring (100.9 ppg), 7th in defensive FG% (.432), and 10th in rebounding differential (+1.2 per game).
Their scoring is on the rise, and they could easily finish in the top 5 in scoring (the 4 teams in front of them score between 0.2 and 0.6 ppg more), while their defensive FG% ranking has remained pretty steady all season despite the fact that the opposing FG% has risen steadily over the past 6 weeks or so. Their rebounding differential has improved from the middle of the pack early in the season to the top 10 now.
I expect the Mavs' offensive output to end up Top 3 in the league, with Jason Terry and Erick Dampier just now starting to become consistent contributors on that end of the floor and teammates just starting to become efficient together offensively. I also expect the Mavs to remain in the top 10 in rebounding differential, so long as they don't have any significant injuries. My main area of concern at this point is their defense. If the Mavs can maintain their effort level and their emphasis on defense as the season wears on, they could really have a chance to do something special come playoff time.
