Saturday, April 24, 2010

A Novel Thought: Start Your Five Best Players (And Other Assorted Ramblings)

Last night's game really left me with a bitter taste in my mouth, for a number of reasons. I won't harp on the officiating any more than I did last night online, but I agree with Erick Dampier completely. That said, what really bothered me the most (and continues to annoy me as the series progresses) is the coaching job by Rick Carlisle.

I know, a lot of people will point out that most of the Mavs played poorly in Games 2 and 3, and they will come back with the whole "What is Rick supposed to do?" defense of Carlisle's coaching performance. I agree that Caron Butler was a turnover machine, Shawn Marion couldn't make his running "push" shot to save his life, and Jason Kidd has suddenly (and inexplicably) morphed back into his 2008 counterpart that was scared to shoot the ball. Still, I'm not letting Carlisle off the hook.

My first complaint is that the team continues to get off to slow starts, despite the fact that everybody knows it is happening. In Games 2 and 3, the Mavs dug a hole and then spent a tremendous amount of energy trying to battle out of it. In fact, if the Mavs had gotten off to decent starts in those games, I think this series is 3-0, not 1-2. To me, this falls on the coach. I don't see it as a motivational problem; I see it as not understanding why you're getting behind in the first place. Caron Butler is a small forward, and he does not have the handles or skill to drive the ball against Manu Ginobili. Asking him to do so (like the Mavs did last night) results in turnovers or low-percentage shots. Asking him to handle in a screen-and-roll situation is begging for a bad pass that will be deflected or stolen. Without a second scoring threat (Kidd, Marion, and Dampier all score off of the plays created or double-teams drawn by someone else), the offense stagnates as the Spurs bump, push, grab, and hold Dirk and then swarm him when he drives. As I suggest in the title of this post, I think the solution to this matchup problem is to start your best five players, which essentially means that I would start Terry in Butler's place. Doing so would create the second scoring threat that has been lacking to start games, and it would make things easier for the non-creators (Kidd, Dampier, and Marion) to do their thing and get in position to finish plays rather than trying to create them. On the defensive end, you really don't lose anything, because Kidd can check Ginobili or Jefferson, as can Marion, with Terry moving over to cover George Hill. Then, when Butler comes in off the bench, he should be playing the SF slot, where he can more comfortably beat his man off the dribble or get an open shot. A 3 forward rotation of Dirk, Marion, and Butler should be the rule for the rest of the series. Butler should not play SG again.

My second gripe is that Carlisle gets so excited when something starts working that he doesn't realize when it isn't working any more (or when his players might need a rest). David Lord wrote an excellent piece about Carlisle running the "hot" players into the ground in Game 3, but this seems to be an ongoing pattern with Carlisle that has carried over from the regular season. I get the fact that you wouldn't want to start Butler in the second half (because he stunk in the first half), but not playing him at all? It seems to me that he could have really helped if he had been put out there at SF (Marion was playing poorly, and didn't play much at all), and no one can convince me that Kidd, Terry, and Barea didn't get gassed by playing basically the whole second half. I got frustrated as Terry missed wide open shots late, Barea couldn't get into the lane any more, and the Spurs were free to swarm Dirk, but upon further reflection I found it hard to blame the players. They were exhausted. Also, good teams adjust when you throw a gimmick at them, and eventually the Spurs did. Carlisle simply rode the horse too long, and it collapsed on him.

This series is still there for the taking. Stronger starts and decent rotations can make it happen. Here's my armchair proposal:

1. Start Terry instead of Butler.
2. Use a 3 forward rotation of Dirk, Marion and Butler. Dirk gets 40-42 minutes; Marion and Butler get to split their 56-58 minutes based upon who's playing better (roughly 28-29 mpg each).
3. Use a 4 guard rotation. Kidd gets 38 minutes; Terry gets 35 minutes or so. Give 10 minutes to Barea behind Kidd and then give the other 13 mpg or so to Beaubois or Barea, depending upon feel.
4. Start Dampier and then handle center minutes based upon who's playing better.

It's not that complicated. Make it happen, Rick. Your job may depend upon it.

UPDATE: Bayliss at LMF suggested that they start Stevenson instead of Marion to improve floor spacing, since he is a threat to hit a three-pointer. I guess that'd be okay, but it doesn't really address the need for a second creator offensively.

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