Sunday, November 28, 2010

"Golf" Scores and Other Assorted 2010-2011 Team Rankings

For several years now, I have posted about "golf scores" over at LMF.  Basically, I track where the playoff teams rank in three essential categories:  offensive efficiency, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential.  I add those three rankings to come up with a "golf score" for each playoff team.  For the 2010-2011 season thus far, here are the numbers:


Team Offense Defense Reb Diff Golf Score
Orlando 8 4 2 14
San Antonio 2 8 8 18
LAL 1 11 7 19
Boston 6 3 15 24
New Orleans 15 1 13 29
Dallas 11 6 12 29
Chicago 21 9 1 31
Miami 5 7 20 32
Indiana 18 5 10 33
Atlanta 4 18 19 41
Oklahoma City 7 20 16 43
Portland 13 17 17 47
Denver 10 13 26 49
Utah 12 10 28 50
New York 9 22 23 54
Cleveland 28 16 22 66

The sample size is still too small to draw too many conclusions about how things will end up, but it's encouraging to see Dallas doing so well defensively.  We'll see, but it doesn't appear to be a fluke to me as I watch the games.

There has been some discussion over the years about how the "golf score" compares to other rankings, either as a predictor of future success or as an accurate ranking of how teams currently stack up.  Just for the heck of it, I thought I'd put together a table that compared it with other well-known rankings (if you see any that I left out that you'd like me to include, let me know and I'll put into the next update that I do).  Also, I've included a composite average of all of the various rankings so that you can see how the Mavs stack up in that respect as well:


Team Golf Score Win % Expected Win % Point Diff. Eff. Diff. Sagarin Hollinger SRS Composite Average
LAL 3 2 1 1 1 4 1 2 1.88
San Antonio 2 1 5 2 3 1 3 1 2.25
Boston 4 4.5 3 3 4 5 2 3 3.56
Orlando 1 4.5 4 4 5 9 8 7 5.31
New Orleans 5 4.5 7 6 6 2 6 6 5.31
Dallas 6 4.5 6 7 7 3 4 5 5.31
Miami 8 13 2 5 2 10 9 4 6.63
Chicago 7 10.5 10 9 8 7 5 11 8.44
Utah 14 7 8 10 14 6 7 10 9.5
Denver 13 10.5 12 11 9 8 10 9 10.31
Indiana 9 14.5 11 8 10 13 11 8 10.56
Atlanta 10 9 9 12 11 15 14 14 11.75
Oklahoma City 11 8 15 13 13 11 12 12 11.88
Portland 12 12 18 14 12 12 13 13 13.25
New York 15 14.5 13 17 15 20 21 22 17.19
Cleveland 16 16 26 26 27 24 25 24 23

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