When word first came about the Kidd trade (last Wednesday), I have to admit that my reaction was somewhat negative. Despite that, I decided that I would sit back and contemplate what this trade meant before making up my mind about how it would impact the team. I mulled it over for quite a while, and I have to say that I am now unequivocally in favor of the deal.
First, to the negatives. Yes, Devin Harris has a lot of potential. Everyone that knows me knows that I was a big Harris supporter. I envisioned a day when he would be posting 20 ppg and 7 apg. I envisioned a day when he was an All-Star and a leader of the team. Those things may still happen for Devin in New Jersey, and I wish him well. Still, when I sat back and thought about it, I came to this realization: Devin is NOT a floor leader. Sure, he's a great scorer. Yes, he's a very quick and skilled defender. But he is NOT a floor leader. Might he become one some day? Sure, but by the time it happened, how old would Dirk have been? Would the increase in his productivity have been offset by the decrease in Dirk's productivity? Bottom line, I think when this trade is viewed in the light of trying to win a title during Dirk's prime, the Kidd for Harris swap is an absolute no-brainer.
As for Diop, I see two things. First, he was a very good shotblocker and a good rebounder, but let's not act like he's irreplaceable. Perhaps the shotblocking is (for this season, at least), but there are other productive backup centers that should/could be available for the Mavericks (e.g., Kurt Thomas, P.J. Brown, etc.), and Avery has been grooming Bass all season long to be the primary backup big man in the playoffs. Who knows what Diop's role would have been in the playoffs anyway? Second, Diop was set to be a free agent this summer. Perhaps the Mavs knew that Diop would want more money than the Mavs were willing to offer. Perhaps the Mavs knew Diop already had his heart set on leaving? The point is, even if you had kept Diop here, there's no guarantee he's here beyond the 07-08 season.
Now, to the positives. Jason Kidd is no longer an all-world defender, but he is still much better defensively than most are willing to admit. All of the talk about Harris being so much better than Kidd on the defensive end baffles me somewhat. Sure, Harris is better equipped to guard quick point guards, but Harris also is prone to committing stupid fouls that put him on the bench for the majority of the first half. Harris commits almost twice as many fouls as Kidd despite playing 7 fewer minutes per game. Kidd gets a lot more respect from the referees and is much smarter defensively, and I think that will play itself out in a positive fashion for the Mavs come playoff time. Kidd is also much stronger than Harris and is better equipped to guard bigger PGs and/or SGs. While Kidd may have trouble with Parker, Nash, and Paul, he will do much better with the likes of Davis and Williams. Also, Kidd allows the Mavericks to go back to starting Terry, which helps the team become more balanced offensively and helps straighten out some of the weird rotations created by trying to bring Terry off the bench. And then there is Kidd's defensive rebounding. Sure, the team is already a strong defensive rebounding team, but now they are a dominant one. Teams better hit their first shot against the Mavs, because they are definitely going to be "one and done."
On the offensive end of the court, I think many fans are going to be shocked to see what it's like to have a real point guard running the offense. Yes, I readily admit that Kidd's scoring efficiency is atrocious compared to Harris, but that's not what we brought Kidd here to do! While Kidd is certainly enough of a threat that teams will guard him, where he revolutionizes the offense is with his passing. I think back to the scores of times this season that I've seen Dirk have to chase down an "entry" pass (often reaching as high as he can just to catch it) that leaves him 20 feet from the basket when he catches the ball. I think back to the dozens of times this season that I've seen Dirk pushed off the block before a Mavericks guard can get him the ball, negating much of the advantage he has over his defender. I envision the literally HUNDREDS of times that a pick and roll has been shut down simply by overplaying Jason Terry's right hand, and a smile involuntarily begins to break out on my face. With Kidd, all of those things will change! Overplay the right hand, and Kidd will go left and dissect you. When Kidd is throwing the entry pass, you're going to have to double, because Dirk will virtually ALWAYS receive the ball on the money. Speaking of on the money, how nice will it be to see Dampier receive a pass down low that isn't thrown below his waist? How rejuvenated will Dirk, Howard, and Terry be knowing that they don't have to create the majority of their own shots any more? Life just got a lot easier on the offensive side of the ball for all of the Maverick scorers (and non-scorers, too!).
Now, to the rotation. Here's how I see things shaking out:
Dampier 28 - Vet Center (to be signed) 15 - Bass 5
Nowitzki 36 - Bass 12
Howard 36 - George 12
Terry 20 - Stackhouse 20 - George 8
Kidd 36 - Terry 12
That's a top 8 of Kidd, Terry, Howard, Nowitzki, Damp, Stackhouse, Bass, George, with a vet center to be added. Hopefully it will be Kurt Thomas. Looks like a championship team to me!
What an incredibly exciting time to be a Mavs fan.
