The Finley Shooting Slump: My Take

The Internet community of Mavs fans is abuzz about "Finley's tantrum" (reported by Mike Fisher here) and Don Nelson calling Finley out (reported here and here and here and here). Rather than focusing on the "tantrum" or why Nelson decided to call Finley out, however, I thought I'd look at why Finley might be in a protracted slump (.407 FG% since January 1).

Finley was quoted in one of the articles linked above as saying that he was getting enough shots, just not enough quality shots. I think there's some real truth to this. I was talking to a friend yesterday, and we both agreed that the guy who has been most heavily impacted by Nash's departure is Finley. Dirk has the ability to create his own shot, and he has been able to survive the departure of Nash quite nicely, but Finley is much better off when someone else is creating for him. Last year, the ball was in Nash's hands most of the time, and Nash would set Finley (and others) up for the shots that they wanted. This year, the ball spends a lot more time in Dirk's hands and the Mavs don't run nearly as many plays which involve the point guards penetrating and then kicking like they did with Nash. I'm not necessarily saying that's a bad thing, because in the past the overreliance on Nash made the team easier to shut down in the playoffs. Shut down Nash, and the Mavs struggled offensively. The Kings series was a prime example of that. However, what I am saying is that the Mavs haven't found a way to get Finley enough quality shots this year, and by quality shots I mean shots that he doesn't have to create on his own. If the man is open, he will knock shots down.

Lest anyone think I'm just basing this all on my own perception, I offer up some interesting Finley stats from 82games.com:

2003-2004
FG%: .443
eFG%: .509
Assisted FGM: 67%
Assisted jump shots: 67%
Jump shot eFG%: .492
Assisted close shots: 65%
close eFG%: .524
Assisted shots with 11-15 seconds on the shot clock: 73%
eFG% with 11-15 seconds on the shot clock: .544
Assisted shots with 0-10 seconds on the shot clock: 71%
eFG% with 0-10 seconds on the shot clock: .537

2004-2005
FG%: .422
eFG%: .481
Assisted FGM: 58%
Assisted jump shots: 60%
Jump shot eFG%: .470
Assisted close shots: 48%
close eFG%: .500
Assisted shots with 11-15 seconds on the shot clock: 60%
eFG% with 11-15 seconds on the shot clock: .504
Assisted shots with 0-10 seconds on the shot clock: 60%
eFG% with 0-10 seconds on the shot clock: .461


So what can we gather from that data? Well, it seems pretty obvious to me. Finley, primarily a jump shooter for the past two seasons, was getting set up for his shots a lot more often last year than this year. His shooting percentages are down across the board, IMO, primarily because he's taking more contested shots. It is particularly telling that last year Finley was a killer with the shot clock on his back (eFG%: .537), and this year he is just average with the shot clock winding down (eFG%: .461). That's because Finley was set up 71% of the time last year in that situation as opposed to 60% of the time this year.

So what's the solution? The Mavs don't use Terry in the same way that they used Nash, and it doesn't appear likely that Finley will get as many shots in the same way as he did in the past. So how do the Mavs encourage Finley to be more aggressive and get him more quality shots? My suggestion would be to put Finley down on the block, particularly against smaller guards. I think Finley can post up and rise up over the top for a pretty clean look against most of the guys covering him. Also, I think that posting Finley could lead to double teams if the Mavs do it on a regular basis, which can only be a good thing.